The issue: Most effective strategy for the U.S. might be to miss that timetable in Afghanistan

When President Barack Obama finished a review of his strategy in Afghanistan last fall, he set what was widely construed to be a deadline for the U.S. to begin withdrawing. At the time, setting a July 2011 timetable was widely considered a mistake, allowing the Taliban to see light at the end of the tunnel.

SINCE THEN, ObamaÕs commanders have been edging away from that deadline, including overall Afghan commander Gen. David Petraeus, who described it as Òthe date that a process begins that is conditions-based,Ó and that depending on the conditions on the ground he reserves the right to recommend against any withdrawal whatsoever.

Obama likely was trying to placate his war-weary base among liberal Democrats. But, as was pointed out, the president had several audiences, one of them being the Taliban.

And now comes authoritative word that the deadline, as many suspected it would, gave Taliban leaders hope that if they can only hang on until next July, they will have won the war.

Marine Corps commandant Gen. James Conway, who speaks bluntly and may be speaking even more bluntly since heÕs retiring this fall, said the deadline was Òprobably giving our enemy sustenance.Ó In eavesdropping on Taliban commanders, he said, ÒWeÕve intercepted communications that say, Ôhey, you know, weÕve only got to hold out for so long.Õ Ó

THE TALIBAN are beginning to show signs of fraying under U.S. and coalition pressure and their foreign allies in al-Qaida are beginning to decamp for Yemen. Among those administering the pressure are 20,000 of ConwayÕs Marines in Hemland province and around Kandahar, the birthplaces of the Taliban.

But Conway believes it will be Òa few yearsÓ yet before the Marines can turn over the province to Afghan government forces. That does not bode well for beginning to leave next July, and in fact, Conway is said to be preparing the Marines for the war continuing past the deadline.

In a curious way, not meeting the deadline could work to U.S. advantage. Imagine the effect on Taliban morale and their leadersÕ credibility, Conway challenged, if the foot soldiers have been urged to just hold out until July and then Òcome the fall weÕre still hammering them like we have been.Ó

The deadline might prove most effective if Obama, Petraeus and company ignore it.

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