By Drew Joseph

The decline of the California Republican Party took a symbolic step Friday, with the secretary of state’s office announcing that registered Republicans account for less than 30 percent of the state’s electorate ahead of Tuesday’s election.

The party’s share of registered voters fell from 31.37 percent in October 2008 to 29.36 percent for this election. Despite an overall increase of more than 940,000 voters in the state in the past four years, the number of registered Republicans fell from 5.43 million to 5.36 million.

“The problem that we’re facing isn’t that Republicans are switching to Democrats,” said state GOP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro, who recently said he would not seek another term. “It’s that we’re facing a significant number of our voters leaving the state, which makes it difficult for us just to keep pace.”

But political analysts said the larger trend is an increase of young voters, many of whom are turned off by the Republican Party and tend to be more liberal. They also point to the fact that California voters could register online for the first time starting in September, which attracted thousands of young voters.

That did not necessarily benefit the state Democratic Party. While the number of registered Democrats rose from 7.68 million in 2008 to 7.97 million this year, Democrats’ percentage of the state electorate slipped from 44.4 percent to 43.66 percent.

At the same time, the percentage of voters who had no party preference rose from 19.91 percent four years ago to 20.94 percent — an increase from 3.44 million voters to 3.82 million.

The boost in voters without a party preference suggests that new voters dislike the partisanship of Democrats and Republicans, said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Field Poll.

“People who haven’t registered before are quite influenced by the political environment in which they find themselves,” he said. “What these numbers are reflecting broadly is a rejection of both major parties.”

The California GOP has struggled to connect with young and minority voters in the state — a problem that may worsen in the coming years because the proportion of minorities is increasing among younger Californians, DiCamillo said.

Del Beccaro said the state Republican Party has tried to reach out to Asian American and Latino voters, but he acknowledged that the GOP must adjust its message on immigration and other issues to attract Latinos, a demographic that will grow in importance in coming elections in California and across the nation.

“Given the demographics of California, this is the beginning of the end for the California Republican Party in electing people to partisan office,” said Bob Mulholland, a Democratic strategist and former adviser to the state Democratic Party. He added that no Republicans hold statewide elected office.

The changing party landscape probably will not affect the presidential or U.S. Senate races in California this year but could impact some congressional and state legislative races and the fates of some ballot measures.

For example, Proposition 30, a tax measure backed by Gov. Jerry Brown that would provide funding for the state’s schools and universities, could benefit from the boost in young voter registration, said Tony Quinn, a former Republican analyst and co-editor of the California Target Book. But the voters have to turn out, he added.

Overall, a record 18.25 million voters are registered in California, according to the secretary of state office data, with 76.7 percent of eligible voters registered.

The percentage of eligible voters registered this year is the highest in 16 years and the third highest in 28 years, according to the office of state Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, who wrote the online registration law.

— Reach Drew Joseph at [email protected]

Comments

comments