Friday, September 19, 2014
YOLO COUNTY NEWS
99 CENTS

Bob Dunning: Never too early to handicap the big race

BobDunning2W

By
From page A2 | April 06, 2014 |

Any time there’s a horse race, dedicated gamblers come out of the woodwork to demand a piece of the action.

So it is with the five-horse race for a seat in the California Legislature representing the 4th Assembly District. As we’ve seen from recent financial reporting, some candidates are willing to spend far in excess of an Assemblyman’s salary to win this coveted prize. It may not make economic sense, but who knows, maybe one of these five fellows will one day be running for president and the money spent on this Assembly campaign will look like chump change.

Years ago, for unknown reasons, I began listing election “odds” on various political races, most notably the always heated affairs for a seat on the Davis City Council. Over time, bookmakers in Las Vegas, Reno, Lake Tahoe and Tonopah have come to rely on these odds in their betting establishments. I’ll admit that with the primary still two months away it might seem early to be posting such odds, but when there’s a demand for my services, I comply.

Odds, of course, don’t guarantee an outcome. That’s why they call them “odds.” Most people, when they first see them, say “that’s odd,” hence the name. An oddsmaker (see photo above) simply tries to ascertain the chances of a certain event happening, be it the outcome of a 49ers-Raiders game or the winner of the race for the 4th Assembly District in the state of California.

Odds can and will change between now and Election Day as one candidate after another manages to shoot himself in the foot on the campaign trail. Today’s sure winner is tomorrow’s longshot.

For those unfamiliar with the concept, odds generally consist of two numbers, as in the phrase “2 to 1.” If a candidate’s odds of winning are listed as “2 to 1,” it means he has two chances of losing and one chance of winning. “Even odds” or “Even money” means the candidate’s chances of winning are 50-50.

Note: I can say “he” comfortably in this race since all five candidates for the 4th Assembly District appear to be male.

If a candidate is listed at “100 to 1,” meaning he has 100 chances of losing and one chance of winning, he qualifies as a longshot. Odds of “1 million to 1” suggest the candidate should return all money raised to his supporters and drop out of the race.

The odds may be revisited, as necessary, between now and the June primary, but note, these are odds to win the Assembly seat in November, not just to come in first in the primary.

May I have the envelope please?

DAN WOLK (Even money) … many are saying the race is Dandy Dan’s to lose, but it’s not quite that simple. Yes, he has youth, charm, charisma, brains, a beautiful family and a famous name on his side, but I’m not sure voters in Williams know who he is. The biggest hurdle for Dan is to convince voters outside his hometown that he’s not just a Davis guy who’s going to institute Davis policies on the state of California as a whole.

BILL DODD (5 to 2) … not a longshot by any means, Dodd has put together a credible campaign with an overflowing war chest and has a fighting chance if he can harness the significant anti-Davis sentiment in this six-county district. If Wolk and Krovoza split the Davis vote, as expected, Dodd could sneak into one of the top two spots in the primary and have a reasonable chance of success in the November general election.

JOE KROVOZA (3 to 1) … veteran political observers are scratching their heads over the fact Krovoza and Wolk decided to run for the same office at the same time. We’re used to seeing these things hammered out ahead of time behind closed doors, with only one candidate emerging. Instead, we have two liberal Democrats with similar philosophies duking it out for the hometown vote, which might end up costing both of them the ultimate prize.

CHARLIE SCHAUPP (10,000 to 1) … nice guy, hard worker, been around the area for a long, long time. None of which adds up to victory in this power-packed race.

DUSTIN CALL (50 billion to 1) … the only way Dustin makes it into the Capitol on Election Day is with a visitor’s pass.

PEYTON MANNING (100 billion to 1) … mean-spirited Seahawks fans have mounted a write-in campaign to help the Broncos’ quarterback find gainful employment now that his NFL career appears to be over.

— Reach Bob Dunning at bdunning@davisenterprise.net

Comments

comments

.

News

Grant means new push for moving tracks out of town

By Dave Ryan | From Page: A1 | Gallery

 
Some say council needs to reconsider MRAP

By Dave Ryan | From Page: A1

UC to create $250 million venture capital fund

By San Francisco Chronicle | From Page: A1

 
School district may redevelop downtown site

By Jeff Hudson | From Page: A1

DUI suspected in crash

By Lauren Keene | From Page: A2

 
Master Gardeners share their wisdom at free workshops

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A2

 
Scots vote to stay in UK

By The Associated Press | From Page: A2

France strikes Islamic State group’s depot in Iraq

By The Associated Press | From Page: A2

 
Man faces arson charge in huge California wildfire

By The Associated Press | From Page: A2

Telling tales, on ‘Davisville’

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

 
Volunteers sought to make veggie bags

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

Storyteller will draw on music, dance

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

 
Woodland Healthcare offering flu shots

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

 
Putah Creek Bike Path to close temporarily

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

Little Free Libraries open at Montgomery

By Anne Ternus-Bellamy | From Page: A3

 
Project Linus seeks donations

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

Rabid bat found at Holmes Junior High

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

 
Students invited to apply for Blue & White grants

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

Halloween costume sale benefits preschool

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A3

 
Register to vote by Oct. 20

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A4

Free workout class set at library

By Special to The Enterprise | From Page: A4

 
Explorit: Lots of ways to be a volunteer

By Lisa Justice | From Page: A4 | Gallery

 
Sierra Club remembers longtime walker

By Special to The Enterprise | From Page: A4

DHS Classes of 1954 and 1955 will hold 60th reunion

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A4

 
Nonprofits can get DCN’s help

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A4

Davis maps available at Chamber office

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A5

 
Need a new best friend?

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A5 | Gallery

Reception benefits endangered gorillas

By Special to The Enterprise | From Page: A5

 
Downtown history tour planned in October

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A7

Sutter Farmers Market offers local goods

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A8 | Gallery

 
Wolk applauds approval of stronger rules for olive oil

By Special to The Enterprise | From Page: A8

Davis hosts its own climate change rally

By Special to The Enterprise | From Page: A8

 
Qigong classes available for heart health

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A9

.

Forum

Sick of being the bad guy

By Creators Syndicate | From Page: B5

 
Educate homeless with dogs

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A6, 1 Comment

Cheers and Jeers: Not the end of the rainbow

By Our View | From Page: A6

 
Tom Meyer cartoon

By Debbie Davis | From Page: A6

Return to previous plan

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A6

 
Save the ‘pine cone place’

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A6

Affirm our community values

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A6

 
Project has safety risks

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A6

Learn more about Paso Fino

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A6

 
.

Sports

Blue Devil volleyballers hold off Herd

By Spencer Ault | From Page: B1 | Gallery

 
Aggies’ new energy could be scary for Big West

By Bruce Gallaudet | From Page: B1

No rest for the weary: Aggie TE Martindale busy on and off the field

By Bruce Gallaudet | From Page: B1 | Gallery

 
Devils hope the light bulb turns on at Edison

By Enterprise staff | From Page: B1

River Cats and Giants sign two-year deal

By Enterprise staff | From Page: B1

 
Mustangs are no match for DHS boys in water polo

By Enterprise staff | From Page: B2

Take Zona and Bama this week

By Bob Dunning | From Page: B2

 
A’s slide continues as Rangers sweep

By The Associated Press | From Page: B8

.

Features

Name Droppers: Awards keep coming for UC Davis retiree

By Enterprise staff | From Page: A7

 
.

Business

Redesigned 2015 Escalade remains breed all its own

By Ann M. Job | From Page: B3 | Gallery

 
.

Obituaries

Carol L. Walsh

By Special to The Enterprise | From Page: A4

 
.

Comics

Comics: Friday, September 19, 2014

By Creator | From Page: A10

 
.

Real Estate Review

Featured Listing

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER1

Professional Services Directory

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER2

Taylor Morrison

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER3

Malek Baroody

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER4

Norcal Land

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER5

Robin Garland

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER6

Dana Hawkins

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER7

Karen Waggoner

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER7

Joe Kaplan

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER8

Lynne Wegner

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER8

Martha Bernauer

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER8

Remax

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER9

Melrina A Maggiora

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER10

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER11

Julie Leonard

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER11

Coldwell Banker

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER12

Kim Eichorn

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER14

Lyon Real Estate

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER15

Jamie Madison & Associates

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER16

Marcelo Campos

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER16

Julie Partain

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER16

Kim Merrel Lamb

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER17

Bob Bockwinkel

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER17

Juan Ramirez

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER17

Chris Snow

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER18

James Hanna

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER18

Susan von Geldern

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER19

Raul Zamora

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER19

Travis Credit Union

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER20

Jamie Madison

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER21

Karen Waggoner

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER21

Tracy Harris

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER22

Lisa Haass

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER22

First Street Real Estate

By Zack Snow | From Page: RER24