The Davis school district is looking at fairly stable enrollment for the coming decade, according to a new set of projections presented at Thursday’s school board meeting.

Scott Torlucci of Davis Demographics and Planning Inc., a Southern California-based firm that’s worked with the Davis schools for several years, rolled out a set of projections that show this year’s enrollment of 8,543 students gradually dipping to a projected 8,428 students by 2015-16. Then, enrollment is projected to rise again over a period of years to a projected 8,680 students by 2020-21.

Torlucci’s figures are based in part on long-term trends in the birth rate for Yolo County, as well as anticipated changes in the housing stock within the Davis school district. His projections include about 500 housing units planned in UC Davis’ West Village, with construction expected to get under way later this year; 110 units at Chiles Ranch on East Eighth Street, approved for development but not yet under construction; and 85 units in the Verona project on East Fifth Street near Alhambra Drive. Some of those homes are complete; others are still awaiting construction.

Torlucci’s projections do not include the 600-some homes that could be part of the Cannery project on the old Hunt-Wesson/ConAgra property north of Covell Boulevard at J Street. An environmental impact review is under way, but the project has not yet been approved by the Davis City Council.

Torlucci observed that the decline in student numbers seen recently appears to have stabilized. That decline was masked by enrollment of large numbers of inter-district transfers — students who live outside Davis.

In 2008-09 to 2009-10, the resident student population dipped by 157 students, but 170 inter-district transfers were accepted. This pattern was repeated in 2009-10 to 2010-11, when the resident student population dropped by 187 students while inter-district transfers increased by 118. The net result was a 0.8 percent enrollment decline, Torlucci said.

A new trend is now evident, he said, with the resident student population increasing for the first time in three years. From 2010-11 to 2011-12, the K-12 residential population increased by 84 students, while the out-of-district population grew by 29 students.

“Taking into account a 29 student decrease in independent study students, the Davis district had a net increase of 84 K-12 students,” Torlucci said.

He added that “previously it was determined a majority of the ‘out migration’ (of students) could be attributed to families moving from the Davis school district to adjacent districts and leaving the students in a Davis school. … Home prices are most likely the driving factor. Davis Demographics feels this migration pattern is a short-term trend and appears to be slowing.”

Torlucci concluded, “With the migration patterns appearing to be stabilizing and new residential development continues to be slow, future kindergarten class size will be the driving force in future projections.

“Births in the area have decreased by 18 percent between 2006 and 2010. This could lead to a similar decline in number of kindergarten students in the next four years. Davis Demographics and the district will need to monitor this closely.”

Enrollment in the Davis schools grew rapidly during the late 1990s and early 2000s, from 7,660 students in 1996-97 to a peak of 8,827 students in 2002-03, due in part to the construction of thousands of new homes. But construction largely stopped around 2003, and enrollment fell to 8,484 students in 2007-08, precipitating the closure of Valley Oak Elementary School.

— Reach Jeff Hudson at [email protected] or (530) 747-8055.

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